[UPDATE: This is now the dumbest diary I've ever written. Early trends revealed nothing: In the big counties, Jim Martin is smoking Vernon Jones. He's going to win by 20 points.]

I've been watching the returns from Georgia's Senate runoff, and it looks like incompetent moron Vernon Jones will beat Jim Martin, about whom I know nothing other than the fact that he's not Vernon Jones. Check out the trends.

Here are the first round results.

Here are tonight's.

I confess, I've been flabbergasted by the success that John McCain's had pushing the "Obama is presumptuous" meme. Does anyone in the press have a short-term memory? McCain was on the air with this ad two bleedin' months ago.

Get ready for some breathless coverage of this.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

It's way off today's 8-point Obama lead in the Gallup tracking poll, but that's nothing new.

I attended Larry Sinclair's press conference today and was confused when he concluded by rushing out of the room, taking no more questions. The reason? He was arrested by the D.C. metropolitan police. I called the First District station where he was being held and confirmed that Lawrence Wayne Sinclair was charged as a fugitive from justice based on an outstanding warrant.

The first story, I think, is up at my magazine's blog. But expect to hear it reported elsewhere soon.

Early exits (especially ones released three hours before polls close) are dicey, but if we can believe Fox, Clinton will squeak out a win in South Dakota.

Fox has men going 52/48 for Clinton, and women going 57/43 for her. They're tied on which candidate "shares your values." Clinton won late deciders 62-38. If she wins, she was put over the top by her last-week, positive campaigning.

If I'm wrong about this, I'll (unhappily) eat my words. But I don't think I'm wrong. I think the "Michelle Obama whitey tape" story is a smear spread by people who want Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination, and are trying to keep superdelegates on the fence by exploiting fears of "more shoes to drop." The Wright and Pfleger tapes have stoked that fear, so the smearsters have got a little credibility when they work the phones and spread the stories.

So: Larry Johnson's 9 a.m. update convinces me that the story is a smear. At worst, there might be a video along the lines of what Booman suggests, a video of Michelle Obama sounding like she's attacking "whitey" when she's actually saying "why'd he." But Johnson claims:

It features Michelle Obama and Louis Farrakhan. They are sitting on a panel at Jeremiah Wright’s Church when Michelle makes her intemperate remarks.

This is odd.

The latest Public Policy Polling survey shows an Obama surge in North Carolina. This is the poll that showed Obama falling to a tie with Clinton during Wrightgate: Now, thanks to increased white support, he's up 21 points.

Barack Obama - 55 (44)
Hillary Clinton - 34 (43)

I had The O'Reilly Factor on while doing some work and watched the latest of O'Reilly's "shame the celebrity" reports. You've seen them. O'Reilly sends a producer to chase down somebody who's been in the news or committed a thoughtcrime. This installment: a producer stalked Arianna Huffington and demanded she explain why HuffPo bloggers called for the death of Tony Snow. Huffington, after a lot of chasing, turned and started to defend her blog to the producer... and he barreled over her and started re-asking his questions.

I commented this in an IL-14 thread yesterday, but people seemed unaware of the facts. Yes, John Laesch, the unsuccessful 2006 Democratic nominee for IL-14, lost the Feb.5 primaries for the special election and the general election. Yes, he lost the latter primary by only 400 votes. No, he's not packing it in and letting now-Congressman Bill Foster carry the Democratic banner. From the Courier News:

All that shaking and quaking about the tracking polls looks a bit silly this hour.

Make of this what you will: The Gallup daily tracking poll shows a sizable overnight hit for Obama. A large weekend lead has fallen to a 46-45 Obama lead.

American Research Group polls have been shockingly, unforgivably wrong during this race, but since their Texas poll showing an Obama lead got some attention their Wisconsin poll is up now.

I just got a tip about this and found the transcript from a 5/25 episode of Free Speech Radio News where McKinney says she's disgusted by the Democrats and thinking about what she'd do if she ran for the White House.

It's at my magazine's blog here. Here's the transcript:

Here's a question for the room: If Barack Obama made a huge mistake in saying "we now have spent $400 billion and have seen over 3,000 lives of the bravest young Americans wasted," how come Republican officeholders and candidates aren't issuing press releases condemning him?

That's usually how these things work. Take yourself way, way back to three and a half months ago and the John Kerry "joke" scandal. Kerry made his comment; he was attacked immediately by Republicans starting with John Boehner. After Kerry made an angry statement half-apologizing for the joke, he was attacked by Dick Cheney and the president, and half of the Democratic party.

Obviously that occured in the heat of a midterm election campaign. But Kerry wasn't running for anything. Obama is perhaps the most formidable Democratic candidate for November 2008. Doesn't it follow that Republicans would jump on the opportunity to take shots at him and extend the "wasted" story?

See that? That's the official Obama '08 logo. It's definitely different... if I was charitable I'd say it reminded me of something Apple would come up with, and if I was snarky I'd say it reminded me of a messianic cult.

Why should anyone bother knifing John Murtha when he's flexible enough to stick a knife in his own back?

Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) told a group of Democratic moderates on Tuesday that an ethics and lobbying reform bill being pushed by party leaders was "total crap," but said that he would work to enact the legislation because Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) supports it.

...

"Even though I think it's total crap, I'll vote for it and pass it because that's what Nancy wants," Murtha told the Blue Dogs, according to three sources who were at the meeting...

You can cry foul about Hoyer's allies leaking damaging info to the press. But think about the temperment and judgment of a guy who'll crap all over ethics reform while ethics is the issue dragging down his leadership bid. And think of what kind of leader he'd be.

As the Virginia canvass goes on, both sides have found irregularities that have actually extended Jim Webb's lead over George Allen. Webb just cancelled a noon "victory speech" in Arlington, Virginia. The reason: George Allen will concede the election at 3 p.m.

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) will concede his Senate race to James Webb (D) at a 3pm news conference.

Webb plans to speak shortly thereafter.

I have no love for George Allen, and incredible esteem for Jim Webb. That said, if Allen goes through with this, I will think more highly of him than I ever have before. Republicans (apart from Ed Gillespie) are being remarkably dignified in this loss.

A couple hours ago, the leading Allen blog posted that trends don't indicate George Allen can pull off a recount victory.

At this point, unless the canvassing discovers some sort of major error, I'm inclined to believe that the current election results will hold up and that Jim Webb will become Virginia's Junior Senator in January.

Congratulations, Mr. Webb.

National media's doing a terrible job of covering this - they're parroting Republican claims of "irregularities," ignoring the concession of the race by Republicans not affiliated with Allen (although they report that RNC lawyers are duking it out with Webb campaign lawyers). There's no mention of last year's red-hot attorney general's race, which was decided by a recount that changed a 323 vote Republican victory to... a 360 vote victory. But kudos to individual Republicans for pressing Allen to be a man and concede.